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Published On: Thu, Jun 14th, 2018

Nigeria’s Oil Exports May Drop To 1.43million Bpd

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There are indications showing that Nigeria’s oil exports would likely fall in July to just 1.43 million barrels per day (bpd). The export plan records the lowest level so far since the start of this year, on Monday.  AUDACITY learnt that the export plan comprised 48 cargoes, compared with 60 cargoes and a daily rate of 1.796 million bpd in June, due in part to an outage on the Bonny Light stream which has been under force majeure for a month. July’s export plan also includes four cargoes of Akpo condensate with 123,000 bpd, compared with four cargoes in June with 133,000 bpd. The export plans showed one extra cargo of Agbami than in June, as well as one more Bonga and an extra Qua Iboe. It also shows 3 fewer Forcados and one fewer Escravos. A number of smaller streams showed no cargoes would load in July. Nigerian oil export plans are prone to revisions and delays, with cargoes frequently pushed from one month to the next. Meanwhile, oil prices rose alongside global markets on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump said a summit in Singapore with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un had made “a lot of progress” . This announcement is boosting hopes of a deal to end a nuclear standoff on the Korean peninsula. Brent crude futures were trading at 76.55 dollars a barrel at 0547 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at 66.24 dollars a barrel.
Markets were held back by signs that output is rising from top producers Russia, the United States and Saudi Arabia. Traders said activity was also muted ahead of a meeting between the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some of its allies on June 22. The meeting may determine the crude production policy of several major producers. Global markets rose after Trump said a closely watched summit with Kim on Tuesday had made “a lot of progress”. It was “really very positive” after he and Kim signed a document following talks in efforts to end a nuclear standoff on the Korean peninsula. “Any positive outcome could be good news for markets,” said Shannon Rivkin, investment director at Australia’s Rivkin Securities. Beyond the Singapore summit, crude has been generally supported by healthy demand and voluntary production cuts led by OPEC. Some oil market fundamentals, however, point to lower prices, with output from the three biggest producers, Russia, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia on the rise.
Russian production has reportedly climbed from below 11 million barrels per day (bpd) to 11.1 million bpd in early June. In the U. S., output has risen by almost a third in the last two years, to a record of 10.8 million bpd. “The deluge of U.S. crude production continues to hold the top-side in check,” said Stephen Innes, head of trading at futures brokerage OANDA. Top exporter Saudi Arabia, which has so far led OPEC’s efforts to withhold supplies, is also showing signs of raising production. In physical oil markets, Middle East light crude grades are set to trade at discounts against their respective official selling prices (OSPs) amid ample supplies to Asia, including from the U. S., four trade sources said on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia has told OPEC that it increased oil output to a little more than ten million bpd in May, up from 9.9 million bpd in April. “This fits with the theory that the Saudis and Russians are subtly moving toward a change to the agreement at this month’s meeting,” said Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at futures brokerage AxiTrader.
Other producers are also increasing output. Kazakhstan’s oil output in the first five months of 2018 rose 6.4 per cent from the same time a year ago to 37.7 million tonnes (1.83 million bpd), the Deputy Energy Minister Makhambet Dosmukhambetov said on Tuesday. OPEC, together with some non-OPEC producers including Russia, started withholding output in 2017 to end a global supply overhang and prop up prices. OPEC and its partners are due to meet at its headquarters in Vienna to discuss policy. “Expect more of the same whippy markets driven by rumours and innuendo ahead of the June 22 Vienna OPEC meeting,” Mr Innes said.

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